Tech Growth is Done! (Click-bait alert)

[swatts]

Hello G-programming Grumps,

This is an opinion piece and thoughts are all my own!

I have a theory that the stupid growth rates around technology businesses is now at an end, and this explains what we are now seeing.

Business growth comes from fulfilling a need, and ends when that need is easily fulfilled. Stupid growth rates (20%+ per year) come when a technology is disruptive and there are huge boosts in productivity or creativity.

But what happens when we are productive and creative enough?

Let us look at Word Processors as an easy first example...

The first WYSIWYG word processor I used was back in early 1990s I think and it was called WordPerfect

So I could now write documents and it looked as if I was writing on the paper..

This was a massive leap forward and improved productivity to a point where it replaced whole departments in companies, definitely disruptive!

But what has happened in the 30 years plus since then, now I can still write a document on my computer and it looks like it does when it is printed. This is 99% of what people use this software for. That is because Word processors are a pretty finished product.

If you look around the tech industry we run into this over and over...

Here's my list of technologies that are pretty much done....

Search Engines .. I would say that they are now being made actively worse.

On-line Shopping .. see above

Spreadsheets .. done

Programming Languages .. not really much new here, now a programming language is judged more on the content created in that language.

Online Video streaming .. done

Games .. pretty much sorted now, still a bit of scope for more reality I guess.

TVs .. how big before it can't fit in a house, how clear and small does a pixel need to be?

My theory is that the companies that innovate in these spaces are used to getting 20% growth rate, will now need to get used to the growth rates associated with more established industries.

I think this explains the constant rounds of vapor-ware and hype-tech that we are enduring at the moment.

I also think it explains the ever wilder promises. Company leaders are under pressure to find the next big thing, this becomes increasingly difficult as all the easy problems have been solved.

A made up example - "My SuperEverythingBotAI is ready for delivery in 2 years*"

*depending on Quantum Computing and Nuclear Fusion being available

Meta has spent untold billions on the Metaverse, without really looking at existing VR platforms (Second Life), doing any market research etc etc.

All in the hope that we would want to exist in Zucks Universe... Turns out the vast majority of us like the real universe.

It might be considered quite a desperate move if looked at objectively.

Here's a question; excluding gamers, who has needed a bigger computer in the last 5-10 years. I'm now running LabVIEW on $100 tiny computers!

Obviously there are outliers, but you don't 20% growth with them!

Home Computers .. Done!

Mobile phones .. done!

So is all Technology done? Where is growth going to happen next?

All technology isn't done, but I think the areas left are difficult.

Personal Robotics - I think there's a market here, but there is a limit to how much we would want to pay as most house-hold chores are pretty easy now.

Space - I personally believe we are way behind where I expected to be 20 years ago, transpires it's a bit more challenging than non-space people expect.

I'm sure somebody will add some more in the comments (I've not done that much research TBH)

And where does it leave us?

Well... hate to break it you all, LabVIEW is 35 years old, we're nearer the arse-end than the cutting edge. But there's plenty of work left to do and I don't need 20% growth a year. Just to grow as fast as inflation is enough. (maybe inflation + a little bit)

Also you can grow vertically, a pertinent example for LabVIEW is to do with native driver support, why can't a communicate with everything that I want to easily. I want LabVIEW to talk to everything, with simple and proven native APIs.....

I still believe that LabVIEW is the best way to write software. I'm still working alone on projects that would need a team of programmers. We just need more content. Growing fatter is easier than growing taller (at least at my age it is)

I'll stand ready for the pitchforks and torches that will be storming SSDC towers.

Love you all!